Probabilities...

When we have to make a decision, we usually rely on some form of probability to guide us - what are the chances of this thing going the way that we expect it to vs the odds of it going wrong - which is why we don’t bother taking an umbrella when there’s only a 5% chance of rain.

So when we get soaked to the skin by that heavy shower, it doesn’t mean we got it wrong, it just means that the probabilities went against us this one time. That’s why they’re called probabilities and not certainties.

Sometimes we’re going to make the right decision but get the wrong result, but we shouldn’t let that stop us from making the big decisions, because most of the time we’re probably going to get them absolutely right…